WEATHER UNTIL MAY 5 2024, ANALYSIS AND FORECAST
All of Italy is now embraced by the subtropical high, ensuring a phase of stable weather that currently includes the northern regions as well.
The North African anticyclonic ridge is channeling warmer subtropical air, encouraged to move towards the Mediterranean by the deepening of an Atlantic trough over Western Europe.
In some areas of the central-southern Tyrrhenian regions and on the two Major Islands maximum temperatures locally exceeding 28-29 degrees are expected.
Temperatures will also rise in the northern plains, especially in the eastern Po Valley. The heat is however temporary and will be swept away by the approaching disturbance linked to the depression over Spain. The depression circulation will move from the Balearic Islands to Sardinia.
The first rainfall will reach the western regions as early as April 30, particularly the two Major Islands, part of the North-West, and Tuscany. The deterioration will peak on May 1st across much of Italy, with more frequent thunderstorms in the Central-North and Campania, and more sporadic in the rest of the South. Temperatures will drop, given the clouds and precipitation.
Further unstable impulses will reach Italy in the following days, with a disturbance expected to transit between May 2nd and 3rd. The central Mediterranean basin will remain in a low-pressure area with pulses of cooler Atlantic air, which will promote a further temperature drop.
IN DETAIL
Tuesday, April 30: conditions worsen by the afternoon among the Major Islands and the North-West, with initial rains and thunderstorms.
Some local showers over the remaining Alpine areas and inland Tuscany.
Sunny and almost summer-like warmth in the rest of Italy, with peaks of 28-29 degrees. Wednesday, May 1: more intense rains and thunderstorms initially in the North-West, mid-to-upper Tyrrhenian regions, and Sardinia, then extending to the rest of Central-North.
Showers in the South.
Temperature drop. Thursday, May 2: bad weather with more frequent phenomena in the North and Tyrrhenian regions. Further weather trends: on Friday, instability will move between the North-East and Central-South, while the weekend will see a brief but not lasting anticyclonic break.
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