The climatic phenomenon known as La Niña is about to make its return, with potential significant repercussions on the global climate and, in particular, on the Italian winter of 2025. This event, part of the ENSO cycle (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), is characterized by a cooling of the surface waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean, central and eastern. La Niña, the counterpart of the more well-known El Niño, takes its name from the Spanish word that means “the girl”.
This denomination, as well as that of its opposite “the boy,” derives from the tendency of these phenomena to reach their peak around the Christmas period, evoking the image of the Baby Jesus.
The Spanish terminology reflects the influence of these climatic anomalies on the Spanish-speaking regions of the Americas. The ENSO cycle oscillates between phases of cooling (La Niña) and warming (El Niño) of ocean waters, with periods ranging from 2 to 7 years.
During La Niña, ocean surface temperatures can drop by 1-3°C (1.8-5.4°F) below average, while El Niño involves a similar increase. Current forecasts indicate an imminent episode of La Niña, with the surface temperatures of the Pacific expected to drop by about 1°C (1.8°F) below average in the coming months, with the possibility of further decreases up to -1.5°C (2.7°F). This large-scale climate change could have significant consequences for Italy, particularly starting from January 2025.
It is hypothesized that La Niña could favor the entry of Atlantic disturbances into the Mediterranean basin, leading to a more dynamic start of the year from a meteorological point of view, especially in the northern regions. For winter sports enthusiasts, this could be good news: the Italian mountains could benefit from abundant snowfall, in contrast to recent winters characterized by mild temperatures and scarce precipitation in many parts of the country. This potential change in winter weather conditions could mark a significant shift from the trends of recent years, with possible implications at the hemispheric level. While the evolution of La Niña continues to be monitored, it remains to be seen how this phenomenon will concretely influence the Italian climate in the coming months.
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