Weather conditions are about to worsen significantly. The widely confirmed Arctic incursion will come into full swing in a few hours, specifically starting from Sunday, but the first signs are already evident in some of our regions.
The atmospheric dynamism of these days is a prelude to the winter shock that is about to materialize. Mathematical models give us the opportunity to express a more detailed opinion; in fact, the development of a Mediterranean cyclonic vortex – as a consequence of the cold impact on our seas – should slightly dampen the thermal effects in the Center-South, while in the North there will be a real thermal collapse. The North, therefore, may see snowfalls at very low altitudes, locally down to the plains, while in the Center it should snow above 2,625-3,280 feet, although some sudden snow events at hilly altitudes cannot be ruled out.
Let’s remember, in fact, that the transfer of Arctic cold towards it occurs more in the presence of intense phenomena.
In the South, however, it will hardly snow below 3,280 feet. As for the subsequent evolution, it seems we will face a slow improvement.
The resumption of Atlantic activity should inhibit the anticyclonic block; at that point, the imposing High Pressure should flatten out on the parallels and then invade the Mediterranean. The improvement should take over in about a week, although in a thermal context that should initially remain wintery, especially during the coldest hours.
Extensive nighttime frosts will be possible, and locally dense and persistent fog banks will return. Projecting towards mid-month, what we can tell you at the moment is that international calculation centers are trying to interpret the role of the Polar Vortex. High Pressure could again deflect westward, towards Western Europe, allowing North Atlantic currents to filter into the Mediterranean. This maneuver could be the prelude to another Arctic incursion, at which point we would be close to the Christmas holidays.
However, it is worth highlighting that the consolidation of High Pressure will need to be evaluated as we go along; we know all too well that an anticyclonic structure of that type will be difficult to dislodge.
But given the atmospheric dynamism of December, we are inclined to believe that variability will continue to be the fundamental characteristic of the monthly trend.
Even around Christmas.
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