The projections of mathematical models confirm a certainly interesting baric setup that should guarantee us a fair amount of weather and climate dynamism throughout the first decade of December.
This setup should propose a High Pressure shifted westward, over Western Europe, while from the north-northwest, North Atlantic or polar maritime currents could flow towards the central-eastern Mediterranean. Let’s start with the weekend, the last autumnal and the last of November.
In this case as well, international calculation centers support the winter thesis by proposing – without any hesitation – the assault of an eastern cold vortex.
Cold that will affect almost all regions, therefore we expect a sharp drop in temperatures, but as for precipitation, it should mainly concentrate on the mid-lower Adriatic and the South. A deep Low Pressure minimum should also form over the Ionian Sea.
This structure could give rise to locally violent phenomena, especially between Apulia, Ionian Calabria, and eastern Sicily.
But for forecast details, we refer you to short-term insights. Shifting the focus to the first decade of December, we must tell you that the model projections point more or less all in the same direction, namely towards the atmospheric variability mentioned at the beginning. We expect, therefore, that after a temporary improvement – presumably induced by the expansion of an eastern anticyclonic extension – unstable, at times disturbed weather conditions could follow due to North Atlantic impulses. We do not exclude, depending on the degree of anticyclonic expansion towards the north, that the matrix could be polar maritime. These would still be winter weather and climate conditions, capable of bringing us locally significant and persistent rains, but also abundant snowfalls on the reliefs.
Both in the Alps and along the Apennine ridge.
In fact, it would be a winter scenario and still appropriate for the first decade of December. Looking even further ahead, there would be atmospheric signals concerning a massive Arctic intrusion by mid-December, but this is a topic that will be addressed elsewhere and certainly in more detail. let’s say that the first winter month could hold quite a few surprises for us.
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