Snow in the plains: between illusions and reality, in search of the lost weather

The phenomenon of snow in the plains, especially in Italy, has become an increasingly rare event, sparking many discussions about climate change and its impact on Italian winters.

In recent decades, the decrease in snowfall in the plains has been evident, particularly in the Po Valley, one of the areas historically most exposed to this type of phenomenon during the winter season.   The trend towards milder and drier winters is clear.

If we look at the last twelve years, in the Po Valley, snowfalls have practically disappeared, with few exceptions.

Just think that Milan, one of the symbolic cities of the Po Valley, saw only one “normal” snowfall event on December 28, 2020, with other snowfalls limited to whitening the roofs or settling without creating significant accumulations.

Events that in the past would have been considered insignificant are now perceived as exceptional.

A significant example dates back to February 2018, when a brief but intense cold wave brought snow even to low altitudes, an event that in the past would have been the norm.   If we analyze the overall picture, it is not only Italy that is affected by this change.

Other areas of Europe and North America are experiencing similar situations.

For example, cities like New York, historically hit by winter storms, have struggled to see significant snowfalls in recent years, with some winters where snow was almost absent.

At the same time, some areas of our hemisphere have recorded unprecedented cold waves, such as those that occurred in Texas and Florida in recent years, phenomena that, although sporadic, represent a manifestation of climate change.   This climate imbalance can be attributed, at least in part, to the increasingly dominant presence of the Azores High, which in recent years has monopolized the European winter climate, preventing the formation of conditions favorable to cold and snow.

The expansion of this anticyclone has often blocked Atlantic disturbances, drastically reducing the chances of cold waves with associated snowfalls, especially in the Po Valley and other flat areas of Italy.   Even the Siberian cold waves, which in the past influenced Europe, have become rare.

However, in the winter of 2023-2024, we witnessed a return of the Russian cold, which hit Moscow and much of European Russia.

At the same time, Scandinavia experienced a period of persistent cold, with temperatures well below average.

These events, however, should not be interpreted as a reversal of the trend: significant snowfalls and cold remain isolated episodes and do not represent a true normalization of the winter climate.   The causes of these anomalies are complex and linked to the global trend of climate warming, which is profoundly altering atmospheric dynamics.

According to scientists, climate change not only increases the planet’s average temperature but also amplifies the intensity of extreme events, such as abundant snowfalls in some regions and the absence of snow in others.   In recent years, we have witnessed historic snowfalls in unusual locations, such as Madrid, Athens, and Istanbul, which have seen significant amounts of snow, phenomena made possible by a more complex interaction between oceanic disturbances and Arctic cold.

However, these episodes should not make us think that the cold is returning on a global scale, as they are isolated manifestations in a general warming context.   In Italy, the weather of recent winters has confirmed this trend towards milder conditions, with few or no snowfalls in the plains.

It is possible that in the future we will see historic cold waves, like those of the 1980s or 1956, but it will be an increasingly rare phenomenon. Snow and cold now seem relegated to exceptional events, and even when they occur, it is more likely that they will happen during the transitional seasons rather than in the middle of winter.   Ultimately, we live in an era of extreme weather, where snow in the plains has become an exceptional event.

Although there are still chances of witnessing significant snowfalls, the global climate context makes it increasingly difficult for snowy and harsh winters like those of the past to return.