In the course of the last few hours, we have witnessed a real turnaround in the mathematical models.
After hypothesizing the grand return of African heat, sooner or later, they had to reconsider their position heavily.
The weather and climate conditions, although they may propose some anticyclonic surges, seem destined to confirm the trend observed so far.
A decidedly fluctuating September trend, often unstable if not locally disturbed.
It is true that there are significant thermal and pluviometric differences depending on the areas of Italy considered, but such differences are undoubtedly attributable to the particular microclimatic conditions of our country.
Returning to the evolutionary framework of the next 2 weeks, it should be said that these are not forecasts but projections, the Atlantic Ocean seems capable of playing a leading role.
The authoritative international calculation centers suggest large North Atlantic depressions near the British Isles, in a position absolutely favorable to the extension of cyclonic undulations towards the central Mediterranean.
It is no coincidence, therefore, that already during the first week of October, the weather conditions are destined to worsen again.
A deterioration that could be preceded by a temporary pre-frontal recall, therefore by a temporary return of the heat, but it will certainly not be the “Ottobrata” hypothesized a few days ago.
Moreover, temperatures could rise mainly in some regions of Italy, for example between the two major islands and the South, while elsewhere the rise would be decidedly less incisive. The rise, as mentioned, is destined to end quickly due to the arrival of another disturbance.
A disturbance that could originate a secondary cyclonic vortex right over our seas, which obviously could expose us to persistent and significant atmospheric instability. But there is still no clarity on the forecast details, so we cannot go further.
What we can tell you is that we are substantially in agreement with the opinion of our colleagues, some of whom foresee an October similar to September.
Therefore variable, at times decidedly unstable, decidedly cool, even disturbed.
This, ultimately, is what could happen over the next 2 weeks.
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