September and Autumn are just around the corner according to the meteorological calendar, but the weather will have very little autumnal about it.
The escalation of thunderstorms in recent days has given the impression of a decline in Summer, but this is a deceptive perception. The African anticyclone still shows all its strength.
Summer 2024 does not intend to give in to the seasonal advance at all, and the weather will remain warm and anticyclonic even in the first part of September. A new thermal surge will now close August and we will not have any particular upheaval even at the beginning of the month. The tenacious persistence of the anticyclone is certainly not good news regarding the rains, in light of the severe drought affecting many parts of Italy, at least in the South and not only.
The many thunderstorms of these days have brought some benefits here and there, but it is not the same as autumn rains. There will be none of this for at least ten days and therefore we cannot talk about Autumn at all.
Projections for September still indicate warmth and an unusual anticyclone, even monstrous especially for the persistence that will put a wall to Atlantic disturbances.
End of Summer will be delayed into the heart of September
Below-normal rains are expected in the first part of September according to long-term trends from the European Weather Center, especially in the Center-South.
There will be thunderstorms related to thermal contrasts between puffs of cool air and heat on the ground, but these will be sporadic and localized phenomena. Autumn could be late in manifesting itself based on a trend consolidated over the years, but this year there is also the ITCZ index, which represents the intertropical convergence zone, located at higher latitudes than average.
This scenario induces the subtropical anticyclone to station over the Mediterranean. However, it is not said that there cannot be surprises, with the first impulses of cool North Atlantic air trying to break through the anticyclonic wall towards the Mediterranean towards the end of the first decade of the month. We will have to see how strong the African anticyclone will be and in this regard, the weather centers are not aligned. Sooner or later the summer decline will inevitably begin, but for a potentially more incisive storm, we may have to wait until mid-month or shortly after, with greater effects in the Center-North and not yet in the South. Here the endless Summer of excessive heat should come to an end, but the road to Autumn is still very long.
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