The weather forecasts for the beginning of September are attracting a lot of attention, especially due to recent discussions suggesting particularly high temperatures.
However, the latest analyses of weather models offer a more cautious picture, indicating that there should be no significant changes in the atmospheric pattern over the next ten days.
The influence of heat from North Africa will continue to be felt, bringing with it an increase in humidity levels and creating a particularly sultry environment, especially in urban and coastal areas.
The latest simulations suggest that the month of September and the beginning of the meteorological autumn could be characterized by temperatures above the seasonal average.
However, the North African high-pressure ridge, which usually fuels these heatwaves, does not seem to manifest excessive power.
The temperatures expected at an altitude of 1500 meters, for example, should hover around 18 °C in the first days of September, slightly lower than the current values of 19 or 20 °C.
This slight decrease, however, might not be significantly perceived at ground level, especially in cities, where heat accumulation is greater.
There is also the possibility of a resurgence of heat around September 4-5, but this is yet to be confirmed.
Cooling Hypothesis Shifts to September 10
A critical aspect to consider is the increase in humidity, particularly relevant in Italy and the Mediterranean basin.
This phenomenon is directly linked to the rise in sea surface temperatures.
With a warmer sea, the evaporation process intensifies, leading to an accumulation of humidity in the atmosphere.
In the plains and coastal cities, this situation contributes to creating an extremely sultry environment, with humidity rates that can exceed 90% in many maritime locations.
This makes the perception of heat even more oppressive, both during the day and in the evening hours.
As for the possible arrival of cooler air, hopes seem to be scaled back.
In recent days, there was talk of the possibility of a cooling after the beginning of September, but current forecasts suggest that it might only be a weak cool flow aloft, perhaps sufficient to generate convective heat thunderstorms, but without a significant impact on ground-level temperatures.
The real turning point, with a more marked drop in temperatures, could occur between September 7 and 10, when a more decisive incursion of cool air is expected.
This could mark the end of the subtropical heatwave, bringing widespread rains and a sharp drop in temperatures.
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