The Axial Seamount, located on the Juan de Fuca Ridge about 300 miles off the west coast of the United States, is recognized as the most active submarine volcano in the Northeast Pacific.
Since 1997, this location has hosted the world’s first submarine volcanic observatory, which has allowed scientists to monitor three major eruptions that occurred in 1997, 2011, and 2015.
Monitoring and Precursory Signals of Eruptions
Observations made on the Axial Seamount have allowed the identification of precise signals that precede eruptions.
A key element is the significant increase in underground pressure, caused by the accumulation of magma, which generates a noticeable swelling of the volcano’s surface. This process is accompanied by increasing seismic activity, with hundreds of earthquakes detected every day.
Since the fall of 2023, scientists Bill Chadwick and Scott Nooner have detected an acceleration in the rate of seafloor inflation.
After a period of relative stability, at the beginning of 2024, the swelling rate increased rapidly, reaching an annual rate of 6 inches by July and hitting 10 inches per year at the center of the caldera.
Predictions for a New Eruption
Based on these data, experts predict a possible eruption by the end of 2025, hypothesizing that the volcano will reach an inflation level similar to that observed before the 2015 eruption.
At that time, seismic activity had dramatically increased, with over 500 earthquakes recorded on individual days.
However, long-term forecasting of volcanic events represents a significant challenge.
Even though historical data provide useful indications, they do not necessarily guarantee that similar behavior will be repeated.
Impact and Contributions of Research
The study of the Axial Seamount not only enriches knowledge about submarine volcanoes but also offers the opportunity to refine eruption forecasting techniques for other volcanic areas.
The most recent results, presented at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in 2024, emphasized the importance of analyzing volcanic behavioral patterns.
These data could prove crucial in anticipating and mitigating the effects of future eruptive activities, thus contributing to the safety of coastal communities and the understanding of global volcanic dynamics.
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