Winter is now imminent: on December 1st, the meteorological winter will begin, and weather enthusiasts are eager for cold, snow, and frost.
Let’s try to see what the trends suggest that could outline a general picture of the season, obviously going in broad strokes and without making precise forecasts.
Although weather models are very reliable tools, it is essential to understand that seasonal projections do not equate to detailed forecasts but only offer a general trend. We cannot say what the weather will be like on day X or if it will rain on day Y.
But we can say if it will be a more or less cold season. Currently, simulations indicate a rather mild winter season, dominated by westerly or zonal currents.
This type of flow, of oceanic origin, tends to bring warmer and more humid air to Europe, suggesting a less harsh winter than usual.
Unstable Winter?
Forecasts suggest a moderately unstable winter, with frequent Atlantic disturbances mainly affecting the North and part of the Center.
But be careful, given the mild component of these currents, of oceanic origin, it could keep temperatures above the seasonal average.
Consequently, snowfall could be limited to mountainous areas, especially along the Alps and the Apennines, resulting in less abundant snow compared to historical values.
In short, humid flow that would not allow snow on the plains. At the same time, the influence of the African Anticyclone or the Azores Anticyclone could determine periods of stable weather and mild temperatures, especially in the Center-South and the Major Islands. The possible presence of these High-Pressure systems would favor drought conditions in some areas, with significant repercussions also on agriculture and water reserves.
Announced Flop?
In short, the period of another flop winter is more real than ever.
Unfortunately, the trend of recent years is not an isolated thing, and we absolutely have to deal with it.
These last winters are literally becoming the new normal, and therefore we cannot pretend that everything will return to how it was.
Making comparisons with the seasons of the past makes little sense because it could simply create illusions among weather enthusiasts.
Read the Report Carefully
In this article, we do not want to minimize the winter possibilities but simply highlight to our readers that the possibility of a lackluster winter season is far from remote.
Should a stratwarming occur, it is possible that intense cold could still involve our country, but it would eventually be a brief parenthesis and not the leitmotif of the three months. Therefore, it is appropriate to understand well the distinction between quick cold waves and lasting frost phases in the next winter season. In all likelihood, in light of what has been said so far, the climatic average will once again be above what we should expect in the various Italian locations.
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