October is ending with warm weather, with an anticyclonic weather pattern that sees the union of the subtropical anticyclone with the oceanic one over our country. The scenario will gradually change during the first decade of November, with temperatures gradually decreasing ahead of a first cold wave. Winter still seems very far away, but in reality, the first winter-like cold could arrive suddenly much earlier than one might imagine.
The latest updates from the most prestigious Weather Centers confirm a potential early start of Winter. The cold could be felt towards the end of the first decade of November.
In fact, there would be a change in circulation compared to the pattern of this late October. The Euro-Atlantic anticyclone would rise northward, placing the next highs in Scandinavia, opening the door to Arctic currents towards Europe. A first cold impulse will flow towards Eastern Europe around November 2-3, but with Italy probably remaining fully protected by the anticyclone. A slight return of cooler air from the Balkans could be felt between Sunday 3 and Monday 4 towards the Adriatic regions and the South.
Cold from the east ready to brush Italy
This first push of cold air will precede a subsequent Arctic plunge, destined to follow a probably more western route, starting from November 5-6 from the Baltic-Danubian area.
Following this, the icy flow will head towards the Balkans, where it will arrive between November 6 and 7. Then comes Italy’s turn, although marginally and in a more attenuated way, from the eastern flow coming from the Balkans.
Temperatures could drop to locally below average, forcing us to take heavy clothes out of the closet. The strength of the anticyclone will probably prevent a deterioration, so everything will be limited to just a temperature drop. Some instability between the Adriatic and the South is not excluded.
There could be conditions for the arrival of the first snow on the mountains down to medium-low altitudes even in the Apennines. This first cold, if confirmed, will not directly open the doors to an early Winter. The anticyclone appears very strong and capable of remaining dominant during November, still blocking the way not only to cold descents but also to oceanic disturbances.
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