Let’s start with the premise that October is usually an even more transitional month. In what sense? Well, in the sense that weather conditions can take on summer characteristics but at the same time fully autumnal peculiarities. It depends on a whole series of factors, or rather a whole series of variables, which are difficult to predict.
It is worth remembering that the next month will be the one during which we will start talking more convincingly about the Polar Vortex, that enormous cyclonic structure that literally takes over the Arctic Circle during the cold semester. This is one of the most conditioning elements, but in addition to the Vortex, we must necessarily mention oceanic thermal anomalies – both in terms of intensity and distribution – and some other climatic patterns such as the NAO, the AO, and so on. Beyond the technicalities, which are of interest up to a certain point, we believe that the result is much more important, or at least trying to grasp the details of the unfolding of the situation. Well, it seems that October has no intention of resembling September, not in the way many imagine.
That is, resembling it in terms of heat, the usual endless “Ottobrata.” It could be hot, yes, but with occasional African anticyclonic bursts. In this sense, we believe the current model projections are very significant, those that, to be clear, are significantly dampening the potential heatwave at the beginning of the month to tip the scales towards the Atlantic.
Indeed, towards the North Atlantic if not even towards the Arctic. So, let’s be cautious with hasty conclusions, let’s be cautious in saying that out-of-season heatwaves will be the order of the day.
On the contrary, we believe it is more likely that October will resemble this year’s September, thus a month capable of giving us points of discussion regarding stormy assaults. Then, after mid-month, we believe that October might even be able to propose a new Arctic incursion and this time it could be more incisive – in terms of temperatures – compared to the one in September. It couldn’t be otherwise, after all, with a developing Polar Vortex – the cold will grow exponentially in the Arctic Circle – it is reasonable to hypothesize greater thermal incisiveness. For this and other reasons, which will be discussed in due course, we are increasingly convinced that the hypothesis of a turbulent October is not so far-fetched.
On the contrary, it could turn out to be the most accurate, the prevailing hypothesis, the one that could confirm an old-style Autumn, one of those autumn seasons that haven’t been seen for a long time.
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