In this article, we will look at the latest weather models. The worsening forecast for the first days of October has been confirmed and could be even more intense than expected.
A Contrasting Start to October
Monday, October 1st, is expected to be under the influence of High Pressure, ensuring stable weather and relatively mild temperatures over much of the Peninsula.
The southern coastal areas, especially in Sicily and Calabria, will still see sunny days with temperatures that could exceed 25 degrees during the central hours of the day.
However, the northern regions will begin to feel a gradual change starting from Tuesday, October 2nd, with the arrival of a weather upheaval. On this date, a descent of cold air of Arctic origin will begin to make its effects felt in Northern Italy. The formation of a low-pressure system near the Alps will trigger a series of disturbances that will progressively move towards the Center and South of the country.
Wednesday, October 3rd: Severe Weather, Here’s Where
Wednesday, October 3rd, will mark the beginning of a significant change in atmospheric conditions.
The cold air arriving from Northern Europe will meet the warmer and more humid currents still present over the Mediterranean, causing a strong thermal contrast.
This contrast will be the main cause of the formation of a cyclone that will bring widespread bad weather over much of Italy. The first regions to be affected will be those in the Northwest, where intense rains and thunderstorms are expected, particularly in Piedmont and Lombardy. The Scirocco winds will begin to strengthen, especially along the Tyrrhenian coasts, bringing with them a significant increase in cloudiness.
Thursday, October 4th: More Intense Rains
Thursday, October 4th, will see the worsening reach its peak. The cyclone forming in the central-western Mediterranean will deepen further, extending its influence over much of the Peninsula. The most affected regions will be those in the Center-North, with abundant rains and particularly violent thunderstorms, accompanied by strong Scirocco winds that could reach speeds exceeding 70 km/h. In Tuscany, Lazio, Umbria, and Marche, significant rainfall accumulations are expected, with the risk of localized downpours.
The bad weather will gradually move towards the South on Friday, October 5th, involving Campania, Puglia, and northern Sicily.
Temperatures Plummeting
With the passage of the cold trough, there will be a marked drop in temperatures across Italy.
The northern regions will be the first to experience this decrease, with values that, between October 3rd and 5th, could drop by 10-12 degrees compared to seasonal averages. In the Center-South, the temperature drop will be less drastic but still noticeable, especially starting from October 5th, when maximum temperatures will stabilize around 18-20 degrees Celsius in the central regions and around 22-24 degrees in the South.
Anticyclone Retreating
This abrupt climate change marks the definitive end of the summer Anticyclone’s monopoly and the beginning of a more unstable atmospheric regime typical of Autumn.
The retreat of High Pressure will allow the passage of other disturbances in the following days, making October’s weather particularly variable, as already suggested by numerous articles.
Follow our feed
