In the last forty years, winters have shown a constant tendency to be less impactful, often appearing repetitive, despite the ongoing climate change. The exceptional harshness of the ’70s/’80s, which in hindsight seems to have been more of an anomaly than the norm, gives way to seasons dominated by high pressure and westerly currents. Every time it seems possible for a return to a more authentic winter, these elements kick into high gear, heavily influencing atmospheric evolution. The polar vortex, often compact, favors the prevalence of mild oceanic currents that pour into Europe, while the anticyclone protects the Mediterranean with its almost impenetrable stability. Even the most promising disturbances, like the one expected on January 2, tend to lose strength as the crucial moment approaches, lowering expectations for a dynamic winter. The anticyclone forces the currents to take very wide paths to reach Italy, managing to bring only a minimal amount of cold air from the polar regions.
Added to this is the action of the westerly currents which, with their vigor, progressively replace the Arctic air with milder flows of Atlantic origin. Despite this, there is still a possibility that recalls a “classic” dynamic for our latitudes: infiltrations of cold air from the northeast could enter the eastern edge of the anticyclone, bringing winter episodes to the central Adriatic and the South. This scenario could result in low-altitude snowfalls along the Apennines, offering at least some glimpses of true winter in these areas. However, for the regions north of the Alps, the situation looks much more complex. The lack of significant precipitation during the cold semester risks further aggravating a season already poor in snow. If this trend persists, the lack of snow accumulations could have negative effects on the water balance and local ecosystems. The possibility of a sudden shift in weather models remains open, which could surprise with a reduction in the strength of westerly currents and a decrease in the invasiveness of anticyclones. In any case, the current atmospheric configuration once again seems to test the expectations of those hoping for a more impactful and traditional winter.
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