According to the ECMWF model, the winter forecasts for January, February, and March outline a meteorological scenario characterized by a low-pressure system over the extreme northwest of Europe.
This configuration pushes the jet stream towards higher latitudes, favoring the development of a high-pressure area over much of the European continent.
This pressure system, however, represents an average over three months and, as such, hides numerous monthly and weekly variations within it. In terms of temperatures, the model indicates prevalent warm thermal anomalies in much of Europe, with a variable distribution.
The anomalies are weaker in the western and southwestern areas of the continent, due to the westerly flow coming from the Atlantic, characterized by generally mild or occasionally cold air. Conversely, the central-eastern and northeastern regions of Europe show more marked thermal anomalies, with temperatures significantly above the seasonal norm.
This picture suggests a milder winter for much of the continent, although it is important to consider that these are general trends and not detailed forecasts for specific locations. The precipitation forecast by the ECMWF model is concentrated in northern Europe, where an increase in rainfall is observed due to the northward shift of the jet stream and low-pressure systems.
On the contrary, southwestern Europe is set to receive less precipitation than normal, with generally drier weather in this region. Some areas of the Mediterranean Sea, however, could see an increase in precipitation, likely due to the interaction between high and low-pressure systems developing over the warm waters of the Mediterranean basin. The monthly data for February 2025 offers a more detailed view, highlighting a potential corridor of cold air over western and northwestern Europe, while warmer than normal air could continue to rise towards the east and Scandinavia. However, the forecasts do not show significant cold air anomalies in Europe, suggesting that such conditions could be the result of monthly averages that mask local variations or more isolated cold events.
Despite the lack of clear signals for a particularly harsh winter, the ECMWF model supports the idea that February could be characterized by a northward flow, potentially bringing phases of cooler or unstable air to some areas of the continent. Ultimately, the ECMWF model describes a European winter dominated by warmer than normal temperatures, with greater variability in precipitation between north and south.
Although the temperature increase is more pronounced towards the center and northeast, local details and weekly variations can create opportunities for colder periods, especially in areas influenced by northern or eastern flows. This scenario reflects a complex balance between continental high pressure and low pressure over the northern Atlantic, which significantly shapes the winter climate of the entire region.
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