So, recently we have discussed the topic “Polar Vortex”. Extensively… We must necessarily deal with it, trying to avoid excessive technicalities, because it is evident that what is happening in the upper layers of the atmosphere will determine the weather and climate outcomes for much of January. Many are already taking the usual script for granted: Strong Polar Vortex equals Anticyclone.
Well, the hypothesis must be taken seriously, no need to beat around the bush, in fact, in recent years it has been the most accredited solution and the one capable of materializing without particular obstacles. This year no, this year it is not so obvious.
Whether it’s because La Niña is somehow trying to influence the European climate, or because other climatic patterns have a different ”mood” from the last 2-3 years.
And then there could be other solutions, for example, that of the cold. Yes, exactly, we have hypothesized a significant cold event, one of those events that occur every 10-20 years.
The return times would be ripe, considering that the last event worthy of such a name occurred in 2012.
We all know, or almost, what happened in that month of February, don’t we? Well, let’s say that something similar could happen between January and February 2025. The Polar Vortex, which will certainly try to take over, could face significant disturbances. Those disturbances capable of literally setting the stratosphere on fire, consequently those disturbances capable of eluding the resistance of the Polar Vortex. And then at that point, a “stratospheric warming” event cannot be ruled out, with effects either of displacement of the Polar Vortex or of a real breakdown (in technical jargon it would be called ”split”).
This latter eventuality does not necessarily mean cold in Italy, but the chances in this sense would increase.
Not a little… For this reason, we tell you that it is necessary to wait, that it is necessary to be patient a little longer. We are close to the seasonal crossroads, or in any case, we are close to knowing the fate of the month of January because then the great winter game will eventually be played.
And let’s be honest, this month of December has reconciled us with seasonal “normality”, let’s remember that a December of this kind has not been seen for quite some time.
Let’s remember that Christmas is snowy in various parts of Italy and where it is not snowing, it is still cold.
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