A hypothesis of a new cold air incursion towards central Mediterranean and Italy continues to be computed in the mathematical simulations for the course of the first half of January. However, there are clear uncertainties in the calculation of the mathematical models, especially regarding the timing of the possible incursion. Particularly challenging appears to be the evaluation by the calculation centers of the structuring of a possible blocking Anticyclone between the East Atlantic and West Europe, an Anticyclone that would support the cold incursion. From the latest updates, it initially does not seem to be well structured in a meridional sense to the point that, until around Epiphany, any cold actions from the North might have more difficulty reaching Italy, at least entirely or, if they do manage, they could be rather rapid or confined to some sectors. In any case, the phase from January 4/5 to January 7, initially hypothesized as at risk of cold incursions, still needs to be well investigated in a winter sense, perhaps based on fresher data in the coming days. In this context, instead, we want to look at the days just after Epiphany, that is, the period from January 7-8 to January 15. For this phase, essentially for the second week of the month, the medium-long term analyses indicate a possible more likely cold maneuver for all of Italy, with a good probability of being the coldest and most distinctly winter-like of January. The subtropical Anticyclone, in fact, with a predominantly Atlantic matrix, would be configured in a much more structured manner and with meridional tendencies between the eastern oceanic sector and West Europe, prompting, with a ridge rising up to Greenland latitudes, the descent of cold Arctic nuclei towards the central Mediterranean and also Italy. Therefore, the second week of January, precisely from January 7/8 to mid-month, would be, according to the latest data, the most prone to cold actions for our peninsula. Among the various scenarios simulated by the model elaborations for this period, there would be hypotheses of cold nuclei coming from Scandinavia, with an action initially more northern on Italy, then gradually lowering in latitude and involving the entire country, including the central-southern regions. There would be some scenarios in the simulations, even of harsh winter in the phase January 8/10/13, with hypotheses of Arctic-continental air and, therefore, significant cold from North to South, with a risk of low snow almost everywhere, often even in the plains and on the coasts. We reiterate, of course, that when investigating possible atmospheric maneuvers beyond 5-6 days, the uncertainty in terms of the credibility of the evolution increases significantly with the lengthening of the investigation period, so the evolution up to mid-January just outlined should be understood as a mere trend that can also undergo substantial changes with newer data in the coming days.
We, however, will provide daily updates regarding it based on progressively more credible data.
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