The latest forecasts highlight a real weather upheaval for the winter event expected between Saturday, December 7, and Sunday, December 8.
The mathematical models, updated with increasingly reliable data, outline a widespread deterioration across Italy, with an accentuated cyclonic action in Northern Italy. A moderately cold depression vortex will deepen at higher latitudes, bringing marked bad weather to the northern regions. The weather conditions will be influenced by a baric minimum located between Tuscany, Emilia-Romagna, and the lower plains of the North, generating abundant rains and snowfalls at variable altitudes.
More widespread but less cold bad weather
The position of the vortex slightly further north than initially predicted will limit the influx of cold air over the Italian peninsula.
This configuration will favor the entry of cold currents over the western sectors of the Mediterranean, particularly involving France, Spain, and western Mediterranean regions.
In Italy, the deterioration will have less icy but very disturbed characteristics. Although snowfalls in the plains will be less likely, Northern Italy will see significant accumulations at hilly and mountainous altitudes.
The central and southern regions, on the other hand, will experience widespread rains and snow starting from higher altitudes.
Snowfalls and rains in Northern Italy
The snowfalls will mainly affect the Northern Apennines, with significant accumulations above 2,300-3,300 feet.
However, snowflakes could descend to low altitudes, especially in the foothill areas of Emilia-Romagna and Northwestern Tuscany. In locations like Reggio Emilia, Modena, Parma, and Bologna, snow could reach down to 330-660 feet in certain phases of the bad weather. In the mountainous areas of the Emilian Apennines, accumulations of up to 16 inches are expected above 2,000-2,300 feet.
Lighter snowfalls will also be possible at low altitudes but limited to the foothill sectors.
The rest of the Northern Apennines, including areas like Pavese, eastern Alessandrino, and the interiors of Genovese, will see snow concentrated above 2,600-3,300 feet, progressively rising to the east.
Abundant snow on the Alps and Prealps
The Alps and Prealps of the Northeast, particularly the Dolomites and the Venetian Prealps, will be affected by exceptional snow accumulations.
From 3,000-3,300 feet upwards, up to 31-35 inches of snow is expected.
In the western Alps, snow will locally descend to 1,600-2,000 feet, with smaller accumulations compared to the Northeast.
Sunday, December 8, the Feast of the Immaculate Conception, will be the most intense day for snow and rain phenomena.
Bad weather in Central and Southern Italy
The central regions will see snow descending on average above 3,000-3,300 feet in the Apennines, with significant accumulations in the mountainous areas.
In Southern Italy, the snow level will rise to 3,900-4,600 feet, with widespread rains and local hydrogeological issues. In Abruzzo and Marche, the precipitations could be intense, especially in the hilly and mountainous areas.
In Campania, Basilicata, and Calabria, the wave of bad weather will be accompanied by strong winds and storm surges along the exposed coasts.
Abundant rains and critical issues in the Northeast
The most marked bad weather will affect the Northeast, with significant rain accumulations between Veneto and Friuli-Venezia Giulia, where up to 3.5 inches are estimated in 24 hours.
These precipitations could cause local hydraulic issues.
The rains will be accompanied by abundant snowfalls above 3,300 feet, with accumulations of up to several decimeters on the Prealps.
Even the large lakes of Northern Italy could be affected by the bad weather, with low-altitude snow in the surrounding areas.
Feast of the Immaculate Conception under the sign of cold and snow
The Feast of the Immaculate Conception will be characterized by widespread winter conditions.
The bad weather will affect almost all of Italy, with low-altitude snow in the North and abundant rains in the Center-South.
Northern Italy remains the most involved sector, with significant snowfalls on the Alps and Northern Apennines. The central regions of Italy, on the other hand, will see a mix of rains and snowfalls at medium altitudes, while Southern Italy will be mainly affected by rainy precipitations, with slightly milder weather.
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