November with compromised weather? Of course not… or rather, the first decade yes, there’s little to be done.
But here comes a gradual change that could be significant over the course of the month.
In the coming days, Italy will continue to experience predominantly stable weather, with some local rains, especially in the central-southern areas, but without significant phenomena at least until Sunday, November 10. And so far, nothing to say, but the best comes after…
A first phase
Initially, the first signs of atmospheric variability will bring more widespread clouds, with scattered local rains in the Center-South.
However, the precipitation will be irregular and generally weak, except for some showers in Sicily.
Some more significant phenomena may occur over the waters of the central and lower Tyrrhenian Sea and in some inland areas such as Eastern and Southern Sicily, Eastern Sardinia, and occasionally in some coastal sectors between Tuscany and Lazio.
Elsewhere, particularly in Northern Italy and large areas of the Center-South, rains will be scarce or even absent.
The turning point: here’s when
For a real turning point, with more widespread and intense rains, it may be necessary to wait until mid-month.
Weather models suggest that a more marked atmospheric deterioration could occur between November 13 and 20, when a flow of cold air could manage to push towards the central Mediterranean Sea, thanks to the weakening of the anticyclonic wave that will be stationed over Italy until then. In this phase, in fact, the High-Pressure structure could expand northward, loosening its grip on the central-southern part of the country and allowing cold impulses to penetrate our basin.
In short, a meteorological phase of bad weather and decidedly colder climate, entirely consistent with the season!
Uncertainty: key word
Despite doubts and variations on the trajectory and intensity of these cold currents, starting from the middle of next week, the weather in Italy could become decidedly more unstable, this now seems certain.
The atmospheric circulation could take on a depressionary configuration, favoring the arrival of clouds and widespread precipitation from the North to the South of the Peninsula. The areas most exposed to significant phenomena could be the central-southern Tyrrhenian sectors, particularly the coastal areas between Lazio and Campania, with possible local involvement of the Marche coasts as well. Rains could be more frequent in the Center-South, with fairly intense phenomena, while in Northern Italy the precipitation would generally be weaker.
In this phase, snow could even fall at hilly altitudes, always if the cold air enters the Mediterranean basin.
Winter preview? Almost
A temperature drop is therefore expected, marking a real advanced autumn passage, with the possibility of scenarios typical of early Winter.
In particular, in the Alpine regions, the first snowfalls could be observed at medium-low altitudes, with the possibility of some snowy events also on the central-northern Apennines.
For now, let’s stop here: we will talk about it step-by-step.
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