Scientists are now almost certain that 2024 will end as the hottest year ever recorded globally.
Current data shows that the global average temperatures have exceeded the 1991-2020 period average by 0.71°C, setting a record for this time frame.
These temperatures are 0.16°C higher than the first ten months of 2023, as reported by the latest measurements from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). To prevent 2024 from breaking the current record, a drastic drop in average temperatures in the remaining months would be necessary, which is considered extremely unlikely.
The deputy director of C3S, Samantha Burgess, stated that based on the data collected in the first ten months, it is almost certain that 2024 will be the hottest year ever recorded. Already in 2023, global average temperatures exceeded pre-industrial levels by 1.48°C, and Burgess claims that 2024 will likely be the first year in which global temperatures will exceed these levels by over 1.5°C, with the possibility of surpassing even 1.55°C.
This situation dangerously approaches the targets set by the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit the increase in global warming to 1.5°C.
Although an annual increase beyond this threshold does not automatically imply the failure to achieve the long-term goal, it represents a clear signal of approaching a critical threshold. Burgess emphasized the importance of considering these new temperature records as a warning, highlighting the need to act decisively in view of the upcoming COP29, the next global climate change conference.
These data should serve as a stimulus to increase global efforts to limit climate warming. 2024 has been characterized by an exceptionally hot summer, during which numerous temperature records were broken in Europe.
Even with the end of the summer season, the heat remained intense. September ranked as the second hottest month ever recorded both globally and in Europe, and the trend continued in October 2024, which is the second hottest October ever recorded globally, right after October 2023.
In this month, global average temperatures reached 15.25°C, exceeding the 1991-2020 period average by 0.8°C. In Europe, the average temperatures in October were 10.83°C, 1.23°C above the historical average for the month, ranking as the fifth hottest October ever recorded. Almost the entire continent recorded above-average temperatures.
October was the fifteenth month out of the last sixteen in which global average temperatures exceeded pre-industrial levels by 1.5°C. These data indicate that the world is facing a climate change of unprecedented intensity.
Constantly rising temperatures not only put ecosystems at risk but can also have severe consequences on infrastructure and resources such as agriculture, increasing the urgency to adopt concrete climate measures.
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