The date is always the same: next week.
To be honest, we must tell you that it has been changed several times, which indicates an evident modeling difficulty in properly framing the weather and climate evolution even in the short term.
Difficulties due to Autumn, an Autumn that seems to want to retrace ancient paths more than ever this year.
However, having to consider every evolutionary hypothesis, what we can tell you is that in the very early stages of next week it might get a bit warm again.
How much? Well, first of all, it is a hypothesis to be confirmed, also because not all international calculation centers agree on this.
Let’s say that the anticyclonic flare-up, clearly subtropical, could involve the two major islands and Southern Italy more, and a bit less the Center-North.
A generalized thermal rise, which if nothing else would serve to sweep away the great coolness now at the door.
In certain areas of Italy, it could really represent a last gasp of Summer, let’s say the classic Ottobrata as it was once understood. 2-3 days of warm and good weather, 2-3 days of summer temperatures, 2-3 days of Summer.
No more, and it is right that it should be so if it happens.
The “if it happens,” we repeat, is dictated by the modeling uncertainty that does not allow us to definitively resolve the reservations. To be honest, we must tell you that some modeling theses point in the direction of yet another deterioration, attributing less weight to the thermal rise or in any case orienting the temperatures towards a return to seasonal normality.
If it will be Ottobrata, we expect that locally – as mentioned especially between Sardinia, Sicily, and Southern Italy – the mercury column could reach peaks of 30°C. Perhaps even exceed them, maybe occasionally approaching 35°C.
But even in that case, we repeat, there would be nothing strange.
Not if the duration of such a flare-up should really prove to be ephemeral.
Our idea is that it could really last a short time, if it happens… Last just long enough to let us catch our breath after the long series of deteriorations that have been conditioning this autumn glimpse.
Indeed, let’s say that bad weather has been the dominant theme for most of September and risks being so even in October, November, December.
Autumn of yesteryear? Let’s say of yesteryear for what is the new weather and climate normality.
However you look at it, something has changed or is changing, we will understand later if it will be a definitive change or simply the usual flash in the pan.
Follow our feed
