The end-of-summer storm is sweeping across Italy, with adverse weather including rain, snow in the Alps at unusually low altitudes for the period, and a plummeting drop in temperatures.
The cooling is exacerbated by strong northern winds blowing over Italy, with the Mistral particularly intense up to storm levels.
The low-pressure area, triggered by the disturbance and the cold front, will move towards the Balkan Peninsula over the weekend. The eastward departure of the depression will favor a partial improvement between Saturday 14 and Sunday 15, more noticeable in the western regions. Following this, the depressionary area will retrace its steps and reposition itself over Italy, moving in a retrograde motion, i.e., reversed from the usual, from east to west.
This dynamic will be facilitated by the formation of an anticyclonic bridge from Western Europe to Russia. This configuration, which will take hold at the European level, is one that, if it were mid-winter, would have brought frost and snow. Generally, this type of circulation is ideal for dragging cold air masses from Russia and Siberia towards Europe and Italy.
Long phase of unsettled weather, with a vortex blocked near Italy
The depression positioned over the Mediterranean would have acted as a magnet for cold continental air coming from the east. Now it is September, and none of this can happen, as the context is different.
The Arctic has not yet cooled significantly, and even less so the areas of Russia and Europe. That said, what can we expect in Italy? Between Monday 16 and Tuesday 17, instability should once again intensify starting from the eastern regions and southern Italy, precisely due to the retrogression of the Balkan vortex that will target Italy again.
Other regions will follow. The presence of the blocked depression over the Mediterranean will favor unstable weather throughout the next week, with temperatures around or slightly below normal.
The cool climate will mainly be a consequence of the still cold air aloft within the vortex. The bulk of the instability could penalize the Center-South. It will not be a typically autumnal weather scenario, and moreover, these powerful anticyclones extending from the Ocean to Northern Europe and Russia will act as a barrier to Atlantic disturbances, which normally characterize the rainy season.
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