The month of September was characterized by marked instability, alternating warm subtropical currents with cold intrusions of polar origin.
During the second decade of the month, Southern Italy experienced a significant rise in temperatures, quickly followed by a return to cold and intense bad weather phenomena.
This dynamic weather pattern could continue into the first weeks of October.
Unusual start to October?
Weather forecasts indicate that the first days of October will be characterized by the return of high pressure.
This will lead to an increase in temperatures after the cold felt between Sunday and Monday at the turn of the end of September and the beginning of October.
The days will be more stable, with predominantly clear weather and no excessive heat.
However, starting from October 3, a new phase of temperature rise could occur. Between October 3 and October 10, cooler currents from Central Europe could clash with the warmer air present in Italy, creating ideal conditions for the advent of an ottobrata.
This phenomenon, common during autumn, is characterized by temperatures significantly higher than the seasonal average, with many Italian regions experiencing typically summer-like conditions.
In particular, Central and Southern Italy could experience days with temperatures easily exceeding 30°C, while in the North they will remain more moderate but still mild.
The African anticyclone lurking
The African anticyclone, although positioned further south, remains a dominant figure in the meteorological framework of Central-Southern Italy.
A slight shift could facilitate the entry of warm subtropical air masses, thus favoring a new rise in temperatures even in the first part of October.
If the cold air from Western Europe moved northward, Italy, especially in the Central and Southern regions, could see temperatures above 30°C, configuring as a true October heatwave. Forecasts indicate that temperatures could again exceed 30°C in several regions, particularly in the South and the Main Islands such as Sicily and Sardinia, during the first decade of October.
These heatwaves at the beginning of autumn are no longer isolated phenomena but clearly reflect ongoing climate changes.
It is therefore possible that new heat peaks will occur in the following weeks, with temperatures above the seasonal average. The constant presence of the anticyclone will bring stable and sunny weather, but with a more marked increase in temperatures in the Central-Southern areas and the Main Islands. Northern Italy, on the other hand, could benefit from milder weather, with temperatures more moderate but still above autumn averages.
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