The Medicane (from the fusion of the terms “Mediterranean” and “hurricane”) are tropical cyclones that form in the Mediterranean Sea.
These meteorological events are less intense than tropical hurricanes but can cause significant damage in coastal areas, especially considering the high population density and infrastructure of the affected areas. Medicanes develop as low-pressure systems with characteristics similar to tropical cyclones.
They manifest with strong winds, torrential rains, and storm surges.
Their duration is shorter than that of tropical hurricanes due to the smaller size of the Mediterranean Sea, and their intensity is generally lower.
Despite this, a Medicane can still pose a serious threat to exposed coasts. According to the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), Medicanes generally have a radius ranging from 70 to 200 km, can last up to three days, and travel between 1,000 and 3,000 km.
Their formation is more frequent in the Sicily Channel, but they can also develop in the Ionian Sea and the Gulf of Sidra. Regarding the prediction of Medicane formation, a study conducted by the Department of Earth and Geo-Environmental Sciences of the Aldo Moro University of Bari found that a decrease in sea surface temperature occurs a few days before the formation of these cyclones.
The study, carried out in collaboration with other entities, analyzed the surface temperatures of the Mediterranean in 52 Medicane events from 1969 to 2023.
In the ten days preceding cyclogenesis, a decrease in sea surface temperature of up to 4 °C was observed. From 2011 to 2023, as written by Dr. Vittorio Minio of the INGV, at least nine Medicanes have hit the Mediterranean, causing significant damage and storm surges along the coasts of various countries.
Although not comparable to tropical hurricanes, Medicane winds can still reach high intensities, with speeds reaching 153 km/h and, in rare cases, can exceed category 1 of the Saffir-Simpson scale, which classifies hurricanes with winds between 119 and 153 km/h.
However, the strongest winds of category 5 hurricanes can exceed 250 km/h, a value that Medicanes do not reach. Regarding climate change, there has been discussion about its influence on the formation and intensity of Medicanes.
It is known that the climatology of these phenomena is well documented only since the satellite era, which began in 1975.
However, thanks to regional climate models, it has been observed that an increase of 3 °C in sea temperature could favor the formation of true hurricanes in the Mediterranean. According to forecasts based on the Med-CORDEX climate models, with global warming of 2 °C or more, the frequency of Medicanes could decrease, but their intensity could increase.
The reduction in frequency would be due to more anticyclonic conditions, which limit cyclogenesis.
At the same time, the increase in Mediterranean temperature increases the availability of energy for Medicanes, intensifying their destructive potential.
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