The weather in Italy is preparing to experience days of strong instability due to the return of a cyclone, fueled by cold currents of polar origin, which will bring intense rains and thunderstorms between Tuesday 17 and Wednesday 18 September.
The disturbance, currently located over the Balkans, is preparing to make its return towards the Mediterranean, bringing a further deterioration of atmospheric conditions over much of the peninsula.
The return of the cyclone towards the Mediterranean
The Balkan cyclone, which caused a temporary improvement in the weather over Italy, has begun to move westward again, pushing towards the central Mediterranean and creating a deep and well-organized depression in the Tyrrhenian area, where it will act undisturbed for at least three days, heavily influencing the weather over all of Southern Italy and part of Central Italy.
This return of bad weather will be accompanied by cold polar currents, which will intensify the severity of the phenomenon.
Intense bad weather between Tuesday 17 and Wednesday 18 September
The days of Tuesday and Wednesday will be particularly difficult on the weather front, with thunderstorms and rains hitting several regions.
Starting from Tuesday 17 September, the most affected areas will be those of Southern Italy and the Middle Adriatic, such as Molise, Abruzzo, and Marche, where violent thunderstorms are expected.
Regions like Apulia, Ionian Basilicata, and Calabria will be particularly at risk of extreme phenomena.
Even the Main Islands, particularly Sardinia and Sicily, will not be spared, as well as Campania, Lazio, and part of Emilia Romagna, where however the precipitations will be less intense.
A persistent bad weather Wednesday
Even Wednesday 18 September promises to be a difficult day, with abundant and persistent rains continuing to hit Central-Southern Italy.
The Middle Adriatic areas, in particular, will see rain accumulations that could exceed 100 mm, with intense and prolonged thunderstorms.
The risk of flash floods will be high, especially in the already mentioned regions, while temperatures will remain significantly below the average for the period, with deviations of at least 5 or 6°C compared to typical September values.
Temperatures well below average
In parallel with the bad weather, temperatures will remain decidedly below the seasonal norm.
The arrival of cold polar currents will bring a drop in temperatures by several degrees, with values up to 6°C below average in many regions, contributing to creating an atmosphere more similar to that of late autumn rather than late September.
Possible new deterioration in the second half of the week
As if the situation were not already critical enough, weather forecasts suggest the possibility of a further deterioration towards the end of the week, with a new perturbation system arriving that could bring new rains and flash floods over much of Italy.
This sequence of bad weather suggests a second half of September dominated by extreme weather conditions, with little chance of seeing a return of the anticyclone and stable good weather. With the cyclone stabilizing over the Mediterranean, the situation will remain very delicate and the coming days will be characterized by thunderstorms, abundant rains, and decidedly cool temperatures for the period.
We are in the full autumn phase, and the arrival of another potential deterioration could mark the definitive end of any remaining summer on Italian territory.
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