January 2025 could suddenly turn out to be as snowy as it hasn’t been in many years. An extraordinary atmospheric situation is occurring near Iceland and Greenland, where a so-called “blocking” anticyclone will form. This will immediately favor a historic cold air incursion in the eastern United States, where, by the end of the first decade of January, the cold air will even reach Florida, with snowstorms expected in the extreme north of the state.
It might even snow in Miami. The last and only recorded snowfall in Miami, Florida, dates back to January 19, 1977. On that occasion, snow also affected cities like Tampa and Orlando, reaching the southern regions of the state, characterized by a tropical climate.
Snowflakes even fell in Miami, an unprecedented event.
The snowfall was brief, with an accumulation of about 0.4 inches.
Forecasts in America are now focused on an extraordinary weather event: there is fear that a polar air incursion could involve all the southeastern states, including Florida, towards the end of the first decade of January.
This phenomenon is undoubtedly connected to extreme weather events related to climate change, which increasingly cause unprecedented atmospheric situations, often of heat, but sometimes, as in this case, of intense cold.
What does America have to do with Italy?
The atmosphere is an interconnected system: what happens in America has consequences in Europe and vice versa.
Atmospheric events in the United States replicate phenomena already observed in recent years, studied by leading experts in the field, which have caused exceptional cold waves, especially in regions not accustomed to cold temperatures.
In the last five years, for example, Texas has experienced two record cold waves.
But does all this concern Italy? In a sense, yes, as it represents a precedent for extreme atmospheric phenomena.
Similar events have also occurred in South America, Australia, and South Africa.
Europe and extreme cold forecasts
Every year it seems that Europe could be hit by an extreme cold wave, but then, in most cases, such events do not materialize.
This generates a sort of distrust in the reliability of long-term forecasts.
However, the European climate is much more complex than that of North America or other continents, making it more difficult for mathematical prediction models to outline atmospheric trends with certainty.
Currently, Europe is experiencing an extraordinary winter heatwave, alternating with local frosts, freezing fogs, and winter temperatures in the plains. Much of the population, living in more temperate urban areas, perceives less the extreme climate that is hitting the continent in these weeks.
Extreme precipitation and the risk of exceptional snowfall
In a context of increasingly extreme temperatures, talking about cold may seem out of place.
However, when forecasts indicate a change, it is important to take note. To deny the value of long-term forecasts a priori is a mistake, even if it is correct to give them the right weight, without equating them to short-term ones. The heavy snowfalls being discussed stem from the fact that we live in an era characterized by extreme precipitation.
In December, for example, we witnessed torrential rains and intense snowfalls in some locations, such as those that affected the Apennines during the Christmas period.
The record snowfalls in November in Emilia-Romagna and the snowstorms that hit many countries in Central Europe testify to how precipitation is more intense today than in the past, due to a greater amount of water vapor in the atmosphere.
Prospects for January 2025
According to the European Weather Center, January 2025 is expected to be a cold month, with cold waves that could also affect southern Europe, including Italy.
These projections, based on models with monthly validity, will subsequently be confirmed or disproved by short-term forecasts.
In short, the meteorological evolution of January 2025 is still to be written.
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