The EFI Index (Extreme Forecast Index) is a fundamental tool for assessing the probability of unusual weather events compared to the climatological average of a specific area.
From the analysis of the forecast maps related to precipitation, a concerning signal emerges for the southern Mediterranean and, in particular, for Sicily.
In the coming days, in fact, an extreme rain event with potential significant impacts on the territory is expected.
The expected weather conditions reveal a complex and risky picture.
Among the main elements is the presence of a persistent anticyclonic block, a phenomenon that has been occurring more frequently in recent times.
This type of atmospheric configuration hinders the normal flow of disturbances, creating a stalling situation that allows the development and persistence of unstable conditions for several days. 
In this context, a cold drop, that is, a mass of cold air at high altitude, will remain blocked above the Mediterranean.
Its stationary position will increase the risk of intense and continuous precipitation, especially in an area like Sicily.
An additional aggravating factor is the sea temperature, which is still above the seasonal average.
The Mediterranean, so warm, provides additional energy and a high level of humidity to the atmosphere, creating ideal conditions for the development of violent and persistent rains. 
Moreover, the contribution of humidity from the Atlantic plays a key role in further fueling the storm systems.
This humid flow could amplify the intensity of precipitation phenomena, increasing the risks for the territory.
The consequences of this configuration could be significant. Heavy precipitation is expected, with significant accumulations in a short period of time, increasing the risk of flash floods, especially in coastal areas and smaller river basins.
Additionally, hilly and mountainous areas, already saturated with water, could be exposed to landslides and mudslides.
It is essential to pay close attention to weather updates and Civil Protection alerts.
Local authorities should prepare emergency plans and adequately inform the population about the behaviors to follow. Constant vigilance and adequate preparation will be crucial to face the potential effects of this extraordinary weather event and minimize damage.
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