WEATHER UNTIL NOVEMBER 17 2024, ANALYSIS AND FORECAST
Unstable weather continues over the two Major Islands, due to a weak Mediterranean depression circulation.
There are also other rains and locally strong thunderstorms of a local nature, although the more organized thunderstorms tend to stay in the open sea.
This area of instability is fueled by the contrast between humid Atlantic infiltrations and cooler easterly currents. The weakening of the anticyclone will continue at the beginning of the week due to a cold vortex from the Balkans that will brush the Adriatic regions, without particular effects.
Much more important will be the rapid descent of a cold impulse from the North Sea, sliding along the eastern flank of the anticyclone which will place its maximum over the British Isles. This cold air mass will help to reinvigorate the depression circulation over the Mediterranean already between Monday 11 and Tuesday 12, with worsening also over the peninsular areas.
The instability will also be associated with a moderate thermal drop, so much so that snow will return to the Alps starting from 1200-1300 meters.
However, the vortex will aim west of Italy, then retreating to Spain. Our Peninsula will still be partly involved in the worsening, as it will be in the confluence zone between colder air from Northern Europe and more humid Afro-Mediterranean flows. There will be a temporary more stable phase in the middle of the week which may then give way to a more significant new deterioration, starting from the western regions of the Center-North, next weekend.
IN DETAIL
Monday, November 11: persistent turbulence in Sicily and Eastern Sardinia, local downpours not excluded on the Ionian side of Sicily. Sunny elsewhere, except for clouds over the mid-lower Adriatic.
By the end of the day, worsening over the Alps with the first snowfalls on the central-western sector. Tuesday, November 12: worsening, due to the entry of a cold air impulse from the north.
More marked instability in the North-West with snow in the Alps, but also heavy downpours between Sicily and the Southern Peninsula. Wednesday, November 13: instability remains in the South, Abruzzo, and Lower Lazio, drier elsewhere. Further weather trends: better weather between Thursday and Friday, but it will only be a truce before a new worsening arriving from the west.
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