In the previous in-depth analysis, dedicated to long-term weather and climate trends, we highlighted some important evolutionary changes. In fact, European mathematical models had changed the game by modifying what seemed to be an already certain heatwave. Changes that, over the last few hours, have been widely confirmed.
Not only that, we were waiting for the American computing centers, and the latest projections seem intent on following in the footsteps of the Europeans.
What does that mean? Quite simply, the “Ottobrata,” understood as a subtropical heatwave, could last very little. In truth, it might not even happen, as the baric scenario at the beginning of October seems to be oriented towards the presence of a large northern depression capable of extending its cyclonic meshes southward.
Southward means that they could spread over the Mediterranean, at which point driving a new deterioration. At the moment, we can tell you that it could be a rapid deterioration, in some ways similar to the wave of bad weather that should hit us in the last weekend of September.
We remind you that in the coming days, a rapid North Atlantic disturbance will pass through, whose effects – both in terms of temperatures and precipitation – could once again be significant. The deterioration at the beginning of October could replicate this evolution, with a disturbed passage from northwest to southeast capable of strongly lowering temperatures and causing abundant rainfall.
Regarding the continuation, we must necessarily be cautious, as some mathematical models hint at the possibility of persistent bad weather, while others see the possibility of a significant improvement. As long as these divergent views persist, it will not be possible to sketch a trend line, but we can tell you our opinion on the matter.
An opinion that reflects that of some colleagues, namely, we believe it is more likely to have marked atmospheric variability tending towards instability, and the cause could be attributable to the isolation of a cold air circulation over Eastern Europe. To be clear, a baric configuration similar to the one that in September brought the Arctic incursion over the Mediterranean and the subsequent isolation of a large secondary depression between the Adriatic and the Balkans could form. Obviously, we repeat, these are hypotheses and as such will need to be reviewed, possibly confirmed or refuted in the coming days.
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